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Xbox Series X - Games Showcase 23 July 5pm BST

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7 minutes ago, Vemsie said:

 

And a new Silent Hill if the rumours have any merit to them. :)

Actually as much as loved the SH series I think they should stop and just work on new projects. For me I think SH has been flogged to death with diminishing quality.

 

Guess why I'm interested in The Medium as it's something similar but different. Shame it wasn't a VR project on the PC as that would take things a bit further....

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5 hours ago, Boozy The Clown said:

 Again though to get it at £1 or $1 for 3 years you had to front load your Live sub which would cost up to £150 (@ £50/year).  The assumption is that everyone did this. Also this assumption is regarding Game Pass Ultimate the $14.99/month Live + Game Pass + Game Pass PC tier. 

 

Assumptions well we all know...….

 

Game Pass basic on Xbox is $10/month. 

10 million subscribers

12 months in a year

= $1.2 billion per year.

 

We can go over the figures and caveats re different levels, split between console and PC etc... but it's a success either way. Microsoft don't seem to be in trouble right now either or ever.

 

Game pass led to them buying and funding devs. Granted some of those devs are AA level but that's what they want to provide quick turnaround on new games for gamepass. It's rumoured that a lot of their first party are sharing tech to speed up development. They may not put out God of War and LOU level blockbusters but MS want games that can be built on over time ala Sea of Thieves, Bleeding Edge, State of Decay that aren't over in a 20 - 40 hour playthrough. Gamepass needs games that expand over years to sustain those subs.

 

in short they know what they are doing. Over the next 2 years we will see a ton of new first party content come to gamepass. It won't be 90+ Metacritic titles but it will be diverse and appealing to many different types of gamer. 


add the running costs of Xbox Live  gold cant be anything like what they’ve been raking in, and mindshare before the next console launch. For which they’d be spending a ton on advertising anyway...

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14 minutes ago, MattyP said:

Actually as much as loved the SH series I think they should stop and just work on new projects. For me I think SH has been flogged to death with diminishing quality.

 

Except this one isn't made by Konami and with key figures from the first two games, including the director of the first game.

Again, provided the rumours are correct, but it seems there is too much smoke for there not to be a fire.

 

I hope Bloober nails The Medium though. I like that the horror genre seems in pretty good shape, with Resi 8 apparently being the most disturbing Resi yet and Kojima wanting to make a horror game.

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10 hours ago, Boozy The Clown said:

 Again though to get it at £1 or $1 for 3 years you had to front load your Live sub which would cost up to £150 (@ £50/year).  The assumption is that everyone did this.

 

That wasn't my assumption though, I said an overwhelming majority would likely have got it for a pound, this would make sense as it's a great deal and has been widely publicised. I've been surprised how many casual mates know about and have taken it up on that basis. Everyone I know did it via cdkeys or such like and it cost a shade over £90 for three years - regardless, even at £50/year it's a great deal.

 

I don't think there's any question that Microsoft are in trouble, they have revenue streams that almost any other company could only dream of but that doesn't mean to say they'll persist with Xbox in its current incarnation if it doesn't turn a reasonable profit - shareholders will see to that.

 

I think you're right with how Microsoft are approaching Game Pass, they've bought a number of decent if unexceptional developers and seem to be funding lower budget less ambitious games than the likes of Nintendo and Sony. Within the context of their subscriptions service this seems sensible but you can maybe see some potential issues down the line too. It seems likely that the Series X is going to be expensive and will be launched in the middle of what will almost certainly be the biggest financial downturn in living memory. This potentially presents quite a high barrier to entry, what gets most people over that barrier is having some great games you can't play elsewhere. As you mentioned the games they're going to produce mostly aren't going to be the sort of very high quality exclusives that'll sway most to stump up £500 or so on a console in the midst of an unprecedented economic clusterfuck.

 

You can counter that by arguing that Game Pass itself will act as motivation enough for many of its 10 million subscribers to upgrade and there's merit to that certainly, I'm still rocking an OG Xbox One and having a few years left on Game Pass might just be motivation enough to get a Series X. That said, given all first party stuff will run on Xbox One for a while and it may well take a few years for decent next-gen multiplat stuff to filter down to Game Pass, so I'm not entirely on board at this stage.

 

The One X has painted Microsoft into a bit of a corner - it came late in the day and cost a fair bit, Microsoft are obviously keen not to alienate One X owners by having their first party studios abandon the platform after only three years but having no first party exclusives does rather the suck the wind out of their next gen consoles sails a little. The solution here is to buy third party exclusives either outright or timed, I suspect The Medium will be the first of a number of third party Series X exclusives for early next gen.

 

I think MS will be fine going into next gen too, Game Pass is the smartest thing the Xbox division have done in a while and It'll be interesting to see how important it'll be as a service going into next gen, whether it's financially viable at this level once its significant subsidy ends and whether Nintendo and/or Sony decide to emulate it to some extent.

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I can see Nintendo either not bothering with their own equivalent of GP at all or else waiting until they can put their own typical Nintendo spin on it. Doing their own thing seems to be doing very well for them at the moment.

 

Sony could always turn PS Now into their GP (it's sort of partway there already now that you can download certain games) if they feel the pressure to actively compete with it.

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I don't understand why Nintendo would even think about emulating Game Pass. Every single one of their games is a sales monster for them, retaining its value over time. And there aren't that many by volume. One 10/10 game per 3-6 months does not form the core of a subscription package. One or two 6-8/10 games a month does.

 

Similarly, there's less incentive for Sony to explore it too hard if they can keep up the quality they've reached this gen (which, I think it's fair to say, has been both consistently high and unusually so for them.)

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Suppose Nintendo’s equivalent is what they’re offering with their online subscription, where it’s not new first party content but a selection of their retro stuff. I could see them adding support for titles up until at least the N64-era to that, although I imagine they’d prefer to charge individually for new versions of anything GC-onwards.

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15 minutes ago, Uncle Mike said:

Similarly, there's less incentive for Sony to explore it too hard if they can keep up the quality they've reached this gen (which, I think it's fair to say, has been both consistently high and unusually so for them.)

 

Nah - I don't buy it. The pressure on them to move to a services based model will be immense, particularly if Amazon properly enter the market, and Google actually get their shit together with Stadia, as well as Game Pass continuing to provide a great deal. It will be interesting if Apple expand Apple Arcade to home players too.

 

Every other media industry has moved to a subscription service based model, gaming isn't special - market forces will see it eventually move there too. Microsoft have spotted this shift coming and have position themselves in such a way that they are in a great position to capitalize on this shift next-gen, although I don't think it'll take Sony too much work to catch up.

 

In 5 years gaming will be like Netflix or Disney+ or Prime Video, with perhaps only Nintendo being the exception.

 

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I think there's differences though. Netflix is a subs model, but it's still not a subs model that delivers a lot of premium content on its first viewing. Netflix delivers either premium content on its second or third viewing window, or exactly that sort of "good enough" content first time around.  Broadly speaking. Similar is true for the other video services, to date. You get the odd bit of arguably premium TV, but most of it is just good enough. Movies are still paid for individually on first view, and TV has always been a subs model anyway.

 

It's only really music that's gone full subscription across the board, in that pretty much everything is available day and date of release across all the services.

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And then your post about "everything is subscription now" falls apart even in your own post. Stadia is primarily trying to sell retail titles, confusingly. Amazon haven't entered the market. Etc. We have Game Pass and maybe Apple Arcade.

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31 minutes ago, Uncle Mike said:

I don't understand why Nintendo would even think about emulating Game Pass. Every single one of their games is a sales monster for them, retaining its value over time. And there aren't that many by volume. One 10/10 game per 3-6 months does not form the core of a subscription package. One or two 6-8/10 games a month does.

 

Similarly, there's less incentive for Sony to explore it too hard if they can keep up the quality they've reached this gen (which, I think it's fair to say, has been both consistently high and unusually so for them.)

 

I agree with Mike here, I don't think there's any real chance Sony or Nintendo will be making their first party stuff available day one on any competing subscription service, some of their their back catalogue though is maybe a different story. 

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8 hours ago, Boozy The Clown said:

 Again though to get it at £1 or $1 for 3 years you had to front load your Live sub which would cost up to £150 (@ £50/year).  The assumption is that everyone did this. Also this assumption is regarding Game Pass Ultimate the $14.99/month Live + Game Pass + Game Pass PC tier. 

 

Assumptions well we all know...….

 

Game Pass basic on Xbox is $10/month. 

10 million subscribers

12 months in a year

= $1.2 billion per year.

 

We can go over the figures and caveats re different levels, split between console and PC etc... but it's a success either way. Microsoft don't seem to be in trouble right now either or ever.

 

Game pass led to them buying and funding devs. Granted some of those devs are AA level but that's what they want to provide quick turnaround on new games for gamepass. It's rumoured that a lot of their first party are sharing tech to speed up development. They may not put out God of War and LOU level blockbusters but MS want games that can be built on over time ala Sea of Thieves, Bleeding Edge, State of Decay that aren't over in a 20 - 40 hour playthrough. Gamepass needs games that expand over years to sustain those subs.

 

in short they know what they are doing. Over the next 2 years we will see a ton of new first party content come to gamepass. It won't be 90+ Metacritic titles but it will be diverse and appealing to many different types of gamer. 


Yeah I think you’ve got a lot of that right. Basically the new Netflix model where they got tired of paying so much for other people’s content so they started making their own. 

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54 minutes ago, Isaac said:

Every other media industry has moved to a subscription service based model

 

That's not even close to being true. Worldwide the box office alone generated over twice the revenue of Netflix last year, that's before you get to bluray, pay per view, merchandising and so forth.  

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25 minutes ago, petrolgirls said:

 

I agree with Mike here, I don't think there's any real chance Sony or Nintendo will be making their first party stuff available day one on any competing subscription service, some of their their back catalogue though is maybe a different story. 

 

It's like expecting Disney to put all their first party content on Disney+, rather than an alternative distribution method when the pandemic has run its course.

 

If you've got compelling content, you can charge for it on its own.

 

Netflix have poured literally $Billions into original content production so far, I don't personally feel they've managed to produce stuff to rival the more traditional media companies best efforts, well certainly not enough for me to have noticed much of it, I'm talking HBO classic level content.

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2 hours ago, Isaac said:

 

Nah - I don't buy it. The pressure on them to move to a services based model will be immense, particularly if Amazon properly enter the market, and Google actually get their shit together with Stadia, as well as Game Pass continuing to provide a great deal. It will be interesting if Apple expand Apple Arcade to home players too.

 

Every other media industry has moved to a subscription service based model, gaming isn't special - market forces will see it eventually move there too. Microsoft have spotted this shift coming and have position themselves in such a way that they are in a great position to capitalize on this shift next-gen, although I don't think it'll take Sony too much work to catch up.

 

In 5 years gaming will be like Netflix or Disney+ or Prime Video, with perhaps only Nintendo being the exception.

 

 

They have PSNow. I might be in the minority here but I think it’s better value than Game Pass. Not that I’m currently subscribing to either but there’s a load more games I’d want to play on Sony’s service. I also like the fact that you can play the games online without a PSPlus subscription.

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Worth noting even Spencer himself said they don’t see Gamepass as the whole future payment model for games. 
 

Quote

Our point of view at Xbox is that there’s not one business model to rule them all(...)We actually think it’s healthy — not just from an industry standpoint, but from a creative standpoint if multiple business models will work.

 

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I couldn't find that Geoff Keighly topic about new conferences so I'll add them in here since the last was recent:

 

 

https://www.ign.com/articles/guerrilla-collective-indie-games-show-june

 

Quote

he Media Indie Exchange has announced Guerrilla Collective – a three-day event focused on indie developers and publishers – taking place from June 6-8.

 

The event will begin on June 6 at 8pm UK (that's June 7 at 5am AEST), and promises news and announcements "for every platform".

Full List of Developers and Publishers and previous work:

11 Bit Studios (Frostpunk, This War of Mine)

Another Indie (SIMULACRA 2, Yuppie Psycho)

Coffee Stain Studios (Satisfactory, Deep Rock Galactic)

Fellow Traveller (In Other Waters, Neo Cab)

Funcom (Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden, Conan Exiles)

Good Shepherd Entertainment (John Wick Hex, The Eternal Cylinder)

Headup (Bridge Constructor Portal, Pumpkin Jack)

Humble Publishing (Temtem, Forager)

Larian Studios (Baldur’s Gate III, Divinity: Original Sin II)

Modern Wolf (Necronator: Dead Wrong, Out There: Oceans of Time)

Paradox Interactive (Cities: Skylines, Stellaris)

Raw Fury (Kingdom Two Crowns, Atomicrops)

Rebellion (Sniper Elite 4, Zombie Army 4: Dead War)

Those Awesome Guys (Monster Prom, Move or Die, Floppy Knights)

Thunderful (SteamWorld Quest: Hand of Gilgamech, Lonely Mountains: Downhill)

United Label (Eldest Souls, Röki)

Versus Evil (The Banner Saga, Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire)

Whitethorn Games (Aground, StarCrossed)

WINGS Interactive (Later Daters, Lord Winklebottom Investigates)

Ysbryd Games (WORLD OF HORROR, VA-11 HALL-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action)

ZA/UM (Disco Elysium)
 

 

 

If a mod can find the topic please feel free to move it.

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We are roughly six months or so away from the planned launch of the new machine and I'm not entirely sure what their plan is to bring their various Xbox subscriptions into line. They have multiple products either announced or rumoured to launch soon enough but I'm not sure how it all fits together without possibly annoying console owners. 

 

Confirmed

Xbox Series X

Gamepass for PC- Its technically still in Beta so not fully launched yet

Streaming Xbox games through Xcloud

 

Rumoured

Xbox Series S (Lockhart)

Streaming PC games through Xcloud

 

Continuing to charge console users to play online doesn't seem like it'll make sense going forward. Presumably people using Xcloud will be able to play against other people and PC users can already play online using Xbox Live. Would Xbox console owners be happy with that going forward? Ditching Live Gold for Series X/S and making the various tiers of Gamepass the sole focus for subscriptions seems like the best setup going forward.

 

Gamepass PC: Play Gamepass games natively on your PC

Gamepass Console: Play Gamepass games natively on your Xbox

Gamepass Streaming: Play Gamepass games using streaming

Gamepass Ultimate: All of the above in one bundle. 

 

 

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Xbox Live Gold brings in too much money to drop it completely and they increased the official price in the last 18 months. However they are presumably going to struggle bringing games to it for the new machine so they do need to address it going forward. 

 

Dropping it completely and focussing on GP would certainly be a big stick to batter Sony with but as PS online services are going to be on Azure going forward they'd be shooting themselves in the foot by forcing Sony to reduce the cost or remove it entirely.

 

It's presumed that XCloud streaming will be added to GP Ultimate in the early days as a free bonus and be offered on its own as a seperate service in the markets where xbox consoles are non existant.

 

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It’s just common sense, they both cost $500 to make and only Microsoft has the ability to sell something for less than it costs to make.

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24 minutes ago, Alex W. said:

It’s just common sense, they both cost $500 to make and only Microsoft has the ability to sell something for less than it costs to make.

Think Sony do too and it's just part of the console strategy. Sell the console at a loss and make the money on licensing on the games. Just depends whose got the deepest pockets this time round I guess.... 

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1 hour ago, Boozy The Clown said:

Xbox Live Gold brings in too much money to drop it completely and they increased the official price in the last 18 months. However they are presumably going to struggle bringing games to it for the new machine so they do need to address it going forward. 

 

Xbox Live Gold and PS+ are both highly lucrative services which unlike a content subscription service has way fewer costs and no constant need to spend shit loads of money obtaining or creating content to feed it to keep people subscribing to it.

 

XSX is backwards compatible, that is a huge potential content library for the monthly sweetners to keep people happy enough about paying to play online until future console games are valueless enough to be included as part of the monthly cost.

 

The online paywall is such a good idea that all 3 console platforms now do it.

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9 hours ago, MattyP said:

Think Sony do too and it's just part of the console strategy. Sell the console at a loss and make the money on licensing on the games. Just depends whose got the deepest pockets this time round I guess.... 

 

Sony has roughly $17bn cash on hand vs. Microsoft's $137bn.

 

So yes, whilst in theory both could do it, Microsoft is clearly the one most able to sell a console at a loss.

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I wonder how many are going to be able to get made by the end of the year. Applies to the PS5 as well really. I'd love to have 'em both for launch this time, but I suspect stock levels will be so tight it'll be well into 2021 before I get a snifter.

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Isaac said:

 

Sony has roughly $17bn cash on hand vs. Microsoft's $137bn.

 

So yes, whilst in theory both could do it, Microsoft is clearly the one most able to sell a console at a loss.

 

They're both perfectly capable of selling the console at an enormous loss. They're both companies that are in incredibly healthy positions cash-wise and are buying back shares at an enormous rate. Microsoft has more cash on hand but not in a way that makes a significant difference strategically IMO. It's more sensible to say "can one of them not afford to eat a big loss this time?". The answer is no. They've both got that option right on hand. Might one of them decide to commit more to give itself an edge? Sure, but it'll be decided by different strategic considerations than that number.

 

How much of its ability to compete with Amazon in cloud computing is Microsoft willing to sacrifice to improve what's already going to be a healthy next-gen Xbox install base, for example? Internal politics - neither of these companies is a monolith. How well has the Xbox games division sold itself to the rest of the company as a source of future services and cloud computing revenue to off-set the loss? (Pretty well compared to Sony's equivalent, I'll bet.) How much is Sony going to have to sink in to rescuing movie projects? How "safe" is PlayStation in their eyes?

 

The conclusion isn't wrong, IMO, I think Microsoft can more easily justify and benefit more from losing money on the hardware this time around. But boiling it down to the total cash on hand of two multinational conglomerates with notorious internal rivalries seems like viewing things through this nonsensical console wars lens where you come up with some metric related to the console or the company and see which number is bigger.

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11 minutes ago, Alex W. said:

 

They're both perfectly capable of selling the console at an enormous loss. They're both companies that are in incredibly healthy positions cash-wise and are buying back shares at an enormous rate. Microsoft has more cash on hand but not in a way that makes a significant difference strategically IMO. It's more sensible to say "can one of them not afford to eat a big loss this time?". The answer is no. They've both got that option right on hand. Might one of them decide to commit more to give itself an edge? Sure, but it'll be decided by different strategic considerations than that number.

 

How much of its ability to compete with Amazon in cloud computing is Microsoft willing to sacrifice to improve what's already going to be a healthy next-gen Xbox install base, for example? Internal politics - neither of these companies is a monolith. How well has the Xbox games division sold itself to the rest of the company as a source of future services and cloud computing revenue to off-set the loss? (Pretty well compared to Sony's equivalent, I'll bet.) How much is Sony going to have to sink in to rescuing movie projects? How "safe" is PlayStation in their eyes?

 

The conclusion isn't wrong, IMO, I think Microsoft can more easily justify and benefit more from losing money on the hardware this time around. But boiling it down to the total cash on hand of two multinational conglomerates with notorious internal rivalries seems like viewing things through this nonsensical console wars lens where you come up with some metric related to the console or the company and see which number is bigger.

 

Thanks - I think that's all fair, and well-argued.

 

I do wonder about the sense of launching either console as a huge loss-leader as we enter a significant global downturn though - surely millions aren't going to be able to afford these boxes, particularly in the US where more than 30 million are now jobless?

 

If I were either of these companies I'd launch expensive, milk the early adopters, then do a huge discount when the supply chain fixes itself and the economy recovers. 

 

I'm not in commercial strategy for a reason though, so who knows what they'll decide.

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6 hours ago, JoeK said:

I wonder how many are going to be able to get made by the end of the year. Applies to the PS5 as well really. I'd love to have 'em both for launch this time, but I suspect stock levels will be so tight it'll be well into 2021 before I get a snifter.

 

 

As much as I want a new console this year if I don't get one it's not the end of the world for me. I still have plenty to play to keep me going well into the next year with what I currently have.

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"60 fps" is trending as people realise that Ass Creed Valhalla is 4K30, so I get to post this again:

 

download.jpg.3abb6d919cb8c063fb0934eb963ab742.jpg

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