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  1. Football Thread 2017/18

    I find it strange how happy the Man U fans were with the performance vs Liverpool - I dont think you will find any other home team in the top six who will have had less possession, shots, or attacks than Man U had vs Liverpool in the first half in any game this season (let alone the second half which was unbelievably bereft of anything other than defensive resolve). Sure they were clinical and pounced on the opportunities presented very well indeed but if that is a good performance from Man U then I cant imagine what a bad one looks like. Liverpool created similar xG from more shots and more possession when they lost 5-0 to Man City in what was their worst performance of the season when they had 10 men for the majority of the game. Obviously with the way the game panned out (scoring early) there is no need to create more chances, so I am not trying to equate the results but rather the performance and confidence on the ball. Man U defended well vs Liverpool that is clear, but how exactly did he let his players play? They were reliant on long balls and/or counters from minute one at home. It is outdated, negative football that is reliant on individual brilliance and on the opposition under performing in attack. Is it any wonder they looked like they had no confidence going into the Sevilla game when a good performance is creating 0.8xg at home from 32% possession and 5 shots (vs Liverpool), or 0.5xg from 43% possession and 6 shots (away vs Sevilla in the first leg)? Imagine how bad it must be being an attacking player for Man U? I found it amusing how last night the BT pundits were questioning the performance from the first leg when a month ago when it happened they were all declaring it a Mourinho masterclass in playing away in Europe.
  2. Super Smash Bros - Releases on Switch, 2018

    I am still playing pretty regularly so am up for some games if something is organised. Also I saw @spainkiller on the other day so I guess he is still playing too!
  3. Football Thread 2017/18

    The xG thing isnt bullshit - it is mostly a measure of luck/variance. Last season De Gea / Man U had an xGA of +2.6 and Lloris / Tottenham had an xGA of +7.8. This season De Gea / Man U have an xGA of +12 and Lloris / Tottenham have an xGA of -1.22. This gives an indication of the amount of variance in the numbers. Basically it tells you that this season Man U should have conceded a lot more goals and Tottenham probably should have conceded less. It is pretty stupid to take one seasons numbers and try to conclude how good a player is from it. De Gea is clearly a phenomenal goalkeeper but you cant really deduce that from this seasons xG numbers alone.
  4. Liverpool Football Club Thread

    Disappointed with the result but you have to say WBA played well especially Rondon. I think disallowing the goal was the right decision, while the rule says it needs to be deliberate the way the rule is always interpreted is that if you get an advantage from a handball it is a foul and thats what happened. Very different from the Everton game which was a complete travesty as Everton offered literally nothing all game but one falling over the only time they even got in our penalty box.
  5. Football Thread 2017/18

    @Plissken thanks for the response - I badly worded my message I didnt mean that Burnley had an easy opening I meant you cant explain their position through saying they had an easy opening because they didnt. I think your point with the article and xGA was also covered in the statsbomb article I linked to with data for the previous two seasons - their main conclusion was that its still hard to justify with anything other than variance and its an opinion I share. The point is that for any kind of meaningful discussion or analysis post game the xG stats are more important than the actual results. Sure you dont win prize money or medals for xG but you can use it to predict future results better than actual results which is the important thing if you want to have any kind of quality discussion or analysis.
  6. Football Thread 2017/18

    I am not sure the experts really got it wrong for Burnley. It is great for them that relegation is probably off the cards now but lets not be completely results oriented here. Pretty much every statistic backs up the idea Burnley are playing close to relegation level football. They have the worst xG in the entire league at ~ 11 goals (have actually scored 16) and their luck in goals against is only exceeded by Man U - they have an expected xGA of ~ 22 goals which is decent (around mid table) but in contrast to the fact they have somehow actually conceded only 12 goals. Considering Burnley have only won one game this year by a score of more than one goal this has resulted in a lot of extra points. I think anything outside of relegation continues to be a good end of season result for them and there is pretty much zero hope of them even challenging for the European places unless their quality of play significantly improves. One interesting thing to note though is that their placing is nothing to do with having a nice opening run of games - in most point metrics that take into account quality of opposition so far they are also 4th, but I dont think this is going to change the above. EDIT: Statsbomb actually did an article on Burnley on xGA as they have outperformed xGA over the past few seasons: https://statsbomb.com/2017/12/on-burnley-and-expected-goals/
  7. Football Thread 2017/18

    The difference from the quality of the goalkeeping or the skill of the attackers is completely overshadowed by variance though. If De Gea is the explanation for Man U overperforming on xGA why were they only +3 all season last season, or +5 the season before (they are on +10 this season so far)? It is true De Gea is a part of the explanation, but luck is a far bigger factor. You can take any game in isolation and discredit the stats - part of the reason why Arsenal had more chances than Man U is because they are chasing the game and thats true, but over the course of many games these individual explanations cancel out which is true of most of the criticisms of xG. It was an amazing game because it is very rare for any team to have such high xG. For example when Man City thrashed Liverpool earlier in the season 5-0 they only had an xG of just over 3. The value of 4.55 (or 5 depending on the source) is one of the highest I have seen in any game this season including completely one sided thrashings in Europe. No team constantly gets an expected goals of 2 or more but rarely scores more than a goal match. Look at the past 4 seasons in the link I provided before - the worst xG performance by any team in the premier league is a) never that large and b) doesnt tend to associate with the worst teams in the league with the worst strikers. This season so far is it Palace on +11, last season it was Southampton on +9 and the season before Arsenal on +9. I am pretty sure in 2015/2016 Arsenal didnt have the worst strikers in the league. As another example, Tottenham scored +14 more goals than expected last season, but this season so far are -1 with mostly the same attacking players - variance plays the primary role.
  8. Football Thread 2017/18

    Pretty much all match punditry and analysis is completely results oriented. I think statistics are only starting to become known of by the public so hopefully this will change soon. Just as an example, if you watch a game where your team is dominating against another team but can't score the commentators will go on about how great the defending is and how inept the attacking is but then if your team scores a fluke and are still on top in the same way suddenly it is great ball retention attacking play and prowess. It is so basic and shallow. Also notice how defensive mistakes are always much worse if the opposition happen to score from them otherwise they are forgotten about. xG is a better metric for predicting future results than the actual result. It has been clear for example that crystal palace have been underscoring since the start of the season so this should be expected to somewhat correct by the end of the season. It is also clear man u have been conceeding way less than goals they should have. This is partly down to their good GK but also luck. Their xGA is now amazingly worse than Liverpool's despite only conceeding 9 goals compared to Liverpools 19. You should expect that ratio to close by the end of the season if the teams continue to play as they have been. https://understat.com/league/EPL
  9. Starcraft 2 - Official Thread

    I am still playing pretty regularly. The league's were a lot of fun! For those interested there are still regular pro games and the homestory cup is on now https://www.twitch.tv/taketv
  10. Liverpool Football Club Thread

    Generally xG is the best method available for predicting future games, more reliable than actual goals scored (which is open to far more variance). The main reason why I posted it is because I have never seen a number as low as 0.1 for a side (especially a home side)! It also shows that those people saying how we missed so many chances - actually you should only expect to score 2 goals on average with the number of chances generated in the game. It is easy to over-estimate the probability of a chance being scored.
  11. Liverpool Football Club Thread

    xG for tonights game 0.1 vs 2.2
  12. Liverpool Football Club Thread

    It is certainly fun being a Liverpool fan these days - every game is a roller coaster!
  13. Football thread 2015/16 season.

    I thought it was Atletico Madrid that were responsible for most of the cheating and gamesmanship in that game - despite having the ball for 3 times as much time Barcelona still managed to commit more fouls apparently. Every time any Atletico player received the ball (after the first 20 mins when they went 1-0 up) they did everything they could to pretend they were fouled to get out of trouble and waste time or to try to even up the numbers of players on the pitch. There was only one team trying to play football for most of the game. Suarez theatrics aside all the worst fouls were committed by Atletico players including a ridiculous two footed lunge that got away with just a yellow in the second half.
  14. Liverpool Football Club Thread

    I know this thread has just turned into a place for people to vent about Liverpool but come on you are supposed to support the team. The whole ethos of the club is to support players through thick and thin. Henderson clearly gives 100% every time he plays for Liverpool and even plays through the pain barrier these days and your comments are ridiculous. He has been an important member of our squad for a number of years now, and yes his form has dipped recently and for a lot of this season but that hardly warrants the kind of abuse you are giving him.
  15. Starcraft 2 - Official Thread

    I am still on all the time and would be happy to play some 4v4s, or any team games for that matter. I have played almost no lotv and the one or two team games I did play I was terrible as things are so different. Its really disconcerting feeling that the last however many hours playing are thrown out of the window such are the major changes but I guess it will only take a little time to learn new build orders.

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